5.7GW wind and solar boom in South Africa

South Africa has installed 3,443 MW of wind and 2,287 MW of solar capacity under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP).

This is according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), which noted a 309.9% increase in renewable operational capacity from 2014 until 2024.

On the other hand, renewable energy generation has seen a 723% increase over the ten years, starting at an annual production of 2.2 terawatt hours, rising to 18 TWh in 2023 and then dropping to 17.8 TWh the following year.

It should be noted that these statistics only include wind, large-scale solar PV, and concentrated solar power (CSP) plants.

South Africa had 560 MW of wind and 960 MW of solar capacity in 2014, producing a total of 2.2 TWh.

This more than doubled to 4.7 TWh in 2015, primarily due to an increase in wind capacity to 1,075MW. Solar increased by 5MW that year.

2016 saw the most significant jump in capacity over the ten years of 1.1 GW, bringing total capacity up to 3,134 MW and energy production to 6.9 TWh.

This was also the first year South Africa acquired CSP capacity (200 MW), which added 500 GWh of generation that year.

Solar capacity growth remained stagnant for the following three years, with only wind and CSP increasing in 2017, bringing the total capacity to 3.9 GW.

Only CSP saw an increase in capacity between 2017 and 2019.

However, total generation continued to increase despite the muted capacity growth. While total installed capacity increased by 920 MW from 2016 to 2019, energy generation went up by 4.6 TWh to 11.5 TWh.

2020 saw another significant increase in installed capacity, with solar energy increasing to just over 2 GW and wind energy to 2.5 GW. CSP capacity has not increased since 2019.

This increased generation output to 12.4 TWh.

CSIR’s reports show that capacity only increased again in 2021 and 2022, with 708 MW and 495 MW being installed, respectively.

These increases in capacity helped raise generation to 15.1 TWh in 2021, the most significant increase over the period, and 16 TWh in 2022.

By this point, wind was producing the majority of renewable energy output (9.7 TWh), followed by solar (4.8 TWh), and CSP (1.4 TWh).

According to the CSIR, installed capacity remained at 6.23 GW until the end of 2024. However, generation increased to 18 TWh in 2023 and then dropped to 17.8 TWh in 2024.

The table below shows the increases in renewable capacity and generation from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2024.

CSIR’s report also noted that independently produced renewable power is becoming more affordable in South Africa, offering Eskom an opportunity to procure capacity more cheaply and potentially relieve consumers of higher-than-inflation price increases.

A recent MyBroadband comparison found that electricity price increases took a wild turn in 2008 — shortly after South Africans first experienced load-shedding.

Consumers were slapped with a massive 27.50% price hike that year, followed by an even bigger 31.30% increase in 2009.

The following three years also saw price hikes of around 25%, with the average electricity tariff increasing from 19.80c/kWh to 188.07c/kWh between 2007 and 2024.

However, the CSIR’s energy centre head, Dr Thabo Hlalele, says the cost of renewable energies, such as wind and solar, has decreased by over 80%.

“We have also seen many generation technologies decreasing in terms of the tariff they can achieve,” he said.

“For example, the recent bid window run by the IPP (Independent Power Producer) office showed very interesting prices of around 50c per kilowatt hour for solar and wind.”

The report shows that the solar energy cost per kWh decreased from roughly R2.75 during the first bid window to R0.50 in the sixth bid window.

Solar power generation showed the most dramatic price change, whereas onshore wind production decreased from just over R1 per kWh in the first bid window to R0.50 in the sixth.

The chart below from the CSIR’s report shows these changes over time.

The reason this so beneficial for power utility is because lowering the energy component of the electricity price is key to reducing tariffs, given that Eskom’s pricing regime is tied to its costs.

However, a number of other factors have been contributing to Eskom’s costs, including financing its debt from years of mismanagement and crisis spending.

Eskom said at the launch of its 2024/25 summer outlook at the end of last year that despite having risen significantly since 2010, its tariffs still do not reflect the cost of producing electricity.