Eskom’s big failure

Eskom will again fail to reach a key target in its generation recovery plan next week.

The power utility was supposed to achieve a 65% average energy availability factor (EAF) across its generating fleet by the end of its previous financial year on 31 March 2024.

It missed that target by some distance and will again fail to reach it by the end of 31 March 2025.

The EAF is one of the key metrics used to assess the performance of Eskom’s power plants.

It measures the proportion of total installed generating capacity that is available to produce power over a particular period.

Measured annually, the figure was typically above 80% and even over 90% between the 1970s and 1990s.

It started dropping around 2007, with a brief uptick in 2017 and 2018, before a linear decline of 3.8% per year until 2023.

The weekly EAF plummeted to its lowest level yet — just under 50% — in that year, which had the worst load-shedding yet. The average annual EAF hit a rock-bottom 54.71% over that entire year.

Energy experts surmised that a large part of Eskom’s ageing coal fleet was beyond saving and that a turnaround in performance was highly unlikely — if not impossible.

However, Eskom embarked on a long-term generation recovery plan from April 2023, which has delivered commendable results that surprised even the biggest sceptics.

The plan was informed by a report from German consultancy firm VGBE using inputs from power station employees and managers to address specific problems they faced regularly.

In addition to the first-hand experience of these workers, Eskom has benefited from direct access to original equipment manufacturers’ materials and expertise, which had been previously hampered by procurement rules.

In the entire 2024, which had the least load-shedding in five years, Eskom achieved a 59.78% EAF, a substantial five percentage point jump.

The latest system status outlook showed that Eskom’s average EAF has continued to improve this year.

The average EAF was 56.87% in the first 11 weeks of the 2025 calendar year, a big improvement over the roughly 52.37% achieved in the first 11 weeks of 2024.

According to Eskom’s latest update, the year-to-date EAF — which is measured from April 2024 to March 2025 — stood at 60.98% by 20 March 2025. That was 6.5 percentage points higher than in the same period last year.

Considering there are just 11 days remaining in the financial year and taking into account how Eskom’s generating fleet has performed in recent weeks, it is a mathematical impossibility that Eskom will hit the 65% target.

The graph below from EE Business Intelligence energy expert Chris Yelland compares Eskom’s weekly EAF in the first 10 weeks of 2025 with previous years.

EAF targets overly-ambitious and unfair to Eskom board

Late public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan set the EAF targets as part of the mandates of the current Eskom board, which was appointed in October 2022.

The original target EAFs were 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025. These were all missed.

It may not be fair to criticise Eskom or its board for failing to meet the EAF targets, as several former company executives and energy experts criticised the late minister for giving the board EAF targets.

The main argument was that the board’s mandate should not include operational matters that are largely out of their control.

Among the critics was former Massmart CEO Grant Pattison, who has also served as a non-executive director on several South African boards.

Pattison explained that the board would not have the power to raise capital, retire debt, or hire or fire senior management, all of which could play a critical role in improving the EAF.

Most of the powers to make these changes lie with the government officials, primarily the electricity minister.

Despite the misgivings, Eskom leadership has continued to mention the target of 65% EAF in press engagements.

The 65% EAF has also been prescribed as the minimum required by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa).

An inability to meet the Nersa-mandated EAF should be factored into Nersa’s decisions on Eskom’s applications for tariff hikes.

A low EAF can be regarded as a symptom of inefficiency under Nersa’s prudence reviews, enabling the regulator to take action.

Despite failing to meet the minimum 65% annual EAF since 2021, Nersa has continued to grant Eskom above-inflationary increases in the past few years.

The table below summarises Eskom’s original and revised dates for reaching certain financial year EAFs.